Modelling of Hepatitis C Elimination in Wales. Is Wales On Track?

Author: Brendan Healy

Theme: Epidemiology & Public Health Research Year: 2022

In 2016, The World Health Assembly adopted the first “Global Health Sector Strategy on Viral
Hepatitis with a vision to eliminate viral hepatitis as a public health problem. Global targets were set
to reduce new viral hepatitis infections by 90% and reduce deaths due to viral hepatitis by 65% by
2030. Wales is signed up to the strategy. Crucial to delivering against target is an understanding of
how many individuals need to be treated on an annual basis and where teams should focus their
Description of model of care/intervention:
Modelling of four treatment strategies (including current treatment numbers, attainment of Welsh
target (+/- a focus on people who inject drugs (PWID) and a bespoke elimination strategy) using two
different data sets on hepatitis C prevalence was carried out.
The model provides estimates on the impact of each strategy on the number of new cases,
prevalence, number of reinfections, impact on CHC-specific mortality, cost implications and when
elimination will be achieved.
Conclusion and next steps:
The modelling demonstrates that elimination will not be achieved by 2030 using current strategies.
The bespoke elimination strategy delivered elimination targets by 2030 and had the lowest overall
costs and fewest reinfections but with higher initial outlay. Wales remains committed to the delivery
of elimination targets by 2030 and are using the modelling to help achieve this.
Disclosure of Interest Statement:
The modelling was fully funded by Gilead Sciences and carried out by an independent company –
Lumanity MMW has acted as a consultant to Gilead through their employment at Lumanity and declare that
they have no personal, commercial, academic, or financial conflicts of interest.

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